Luminosities of AGB Variables

The prevailing evidence suggests that most large-amplitude AGB variables follow the period luminosity (PL) relation that has been established for Miras in the LMC and galactic globular clusters. Hipparcos observations indicate that most Miras in the solar neighbourhood are consistent with such a relation. There are two groups of stars with luminosities that are apparently greater than the PL relation would predict: (1) in the LMC and SMC there are large amplitude variables, with long periods, P> 420 days, which are probably undergoing hot bottom burning, but which are very clearly more luminous than the PL relation (these are visually bright and are likely to be among the first stars discovered in more distant intermediate age populations); (2) in the solar neighbourhood there are short period, P<235 days, red stars which are probably more luminous than the PL relation. Similar short-period red stars, with high luminosities, have not been identified in the Magellanic Clouds.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figure, to be published in Mass-Losing Pulsating Stars and their Circumstellar Matter, Y. Nakada & M. Honma (eds) Kluwer ASSL serie

The hand of Homo naledi

A nearly complete right hand of an adult hominin was recovered from the Rising Star cave system, South Africa. Based on associated hominin material, the bones of this hand are attributed to Homo naledi. This hand reveals a long, robust thumb and derived wrist morphology that is shared with Neandertals and modern humans, and considered adaptive for intensified manual manipulation. However, the finger bones are longer and more curved than in most australopiths, indicating frequent use of the hand during life for strong grasping during locomotor climbing and suspension. These markedly curved digits in combination with an otherwise human-like wrist and palm indicate a significant degree of climbing, despite the derived nature of many aspects of the hand and other regions of the postcranial skeleton in H. naledi

3-D uncertainty-based topographic change detection with structure-from-motion photogrammetry: precision maps for ground control and directly georeferenced surveys

Structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetry is revolutionising the collection of detailed topographic data, but insight into geomorphological processes is currently restricted by our limited understanding of SfM survey uncertainties. Here, we present an approach that, for the first time, specifically accounts for the spatially variable precision inherent to photo-based surveys, and enables confidence-bounded quantification of 3-D topographic change. The method uses novel 3-D precision maps that describe the 3-D photogrammetric and georeferencing uncertainty, and determines change through an adapted state-of-the-art fully 3-D point-cloud comparison (M3C2; Lague, et al., 2013), which is particularly valuable for complex topography. We introduce this method by: (1) using simulated UAV surveys, processed in photogrammetric software, to illustrate the spatial variability of precision and the relative influences of photogrammetric (e.g. image network geometry, tie point quality) and georeferencing (e.g. control measurement) considerations; (2) we then present a new Monte Carlo procedure for deriving this information using standard SfM software and integrate it into confidence-bounded change detection; before (3) demonstrating geomorphological application in which we use benchmark TLS data for validation and then estimate sediment budgets through differencing annual SfM surveys of an eroding badland. We show how 3-D precision maps enable more probable erosion patterns to be identified than existing analyses, and how a similar overall survey precision could have been achieved with direct survey georeferencing for camera position data with precision half as good as the GCPs’. Where precision is limited by weak georeferencing (e.g. camera positions with multi-metre precision, such as from a consumer UAV), then overall survey precision can scale as n-½ of the control precision (n = number of images). Our method also provides variance-covariance information for all parameters. Thus, we now open the door for SfM practitioners to use the comprehensive analyses that have underpinned rigorous photogrammetric approaches over the last half-century

Do classic blood biomarkers of JSLE identify active lupus nephritis? Evidence from the UK JSLE Cohort Study.

Background Lupus nephritis (LN) affects up to 80% of juvenile-onset systemic lupus erythematosus (JSLE) patients. The value of commonly available biomarkers, such as anti-dsDNA antibodies, complement (C3/C4), ESR and full blood count parameters in the identification of active LN remains uncertain. Methods Participants from the UK JSLE Cohort Study, aged <16 years at diagnosis, were categorized as having active or inactive LN according to the renal domain of the British Isles Lupus Assessment Group score. Classic biomarkers: anti-dsDNA, C3, C4, ESR, CRP, haemoglobin, total white cells, neutrophils, lymphocytes, platelets and immunoglobulins were assessed for their ability to identify active LN using binary logistic regression modeling, with stepAIC function applied to select a final model. Receiver-operating curve analysis was used to assess diagnostic accuracy. Results A total of 370 patients were recruited; 191 (52%) had active LN and 179 (48%) had inactive LN. Binary logistic regression modeling demonstrated a combination of ESR, C3, white cell count, neutrophils, lymphocytes and IgG to be best for the identification of active LN (area under the curve 0.724). Conclusions At best, combining common classic blood biomarkers of lupus activity using multivariate analysis provides a 'fair' ability to identify active LN. Urine biomarkers were not included in these analyses. These results add to the concern that classic blood biomarkers are limited in monitoring discrete JSLE manifestations such as LN

Terrestrial laser scanning to deliver high-resolution topography of the upper Tarfala valley, arctic Sweden

Alpine valleys are experiencing rapidly changing physical, biological and geochemical processes as glacier masses diminish, snowfall patterns change and consequently as hillslopes and valley-floor landforms and sediments adjust. Measurement and understanding of these processes on a valley, landform and surface scale requires topographic data with sufficient spatial coverage and spatial resolution to resolve sources, fluxes and storages of sediment. Most ideally such topographic data will be of a resolution sufficient to resolve important spatial heterogeneity in land cover, topography and surface texture, for example. This study presents the first high-resolution (1 m grid cell size) and freely available topography for the upper part of the Tarfala valley, arctic Sweden. The topography was obtained using terrestrial laser scanning and a bespoke workflow is presented to most efficiently cover a 9.3 km2 area. The unprecedented spatial resolution of this topography, which is 15 times greater than that previously available, reveals a suite of alpine landforms. These landforms span multiple glacier forefields, a variety of bedrock surfaces, various hillslopes and types of mass movement, and valley floor glacial, fluvial and periglacial sediments, for example. Primary and second-order derivatives of this elevation data, and vertical transects are given and will assist future classification of landforms and thus assist future targeted field campaigns. Overall, this study presents (1) baseline data from which future re-surveys will enable quantitative analysis of a dynamic landscape, and (2) an efficient workflow that is readily transferable to any scientific study at any other site. Both of these project outputs will find widespread usage in future alpine studies

The planning and control of multiple task work: a study of secretarial office administration

This paper reports an attempt to construct a design-oriented model of the planning and control of multiple task work (PCMT) based on observations of secretarial office administration (SOA). The model is design-oriented in that it is intended to assist a designer to reason about the behaviours of an interactive human-computer worksystem; in this case, the planning and control behaviours of worksystems which carry out multiple task work. Design-oriented models of engineering contrast with the understanding-oriented models of science, which offer an understanding of phenomena in the form of their explanation and prediction

Ice cliff dynamics in the Everest region of the Central Himalaya

The importance of ice cliffs for glacier-scale ablation on debris-covered glaciers is now widely recognised. However, a paucity of data exists to describe the spatio-temporal distribution of ice cliffs. In this study we analysed the position and geometry of 8229 ice cliffs and 5582 supraglacial ponds on 14 glaciers in the Everest region between 2000 and 2015. We observed notable ice cliff and pond spatial coincidence. On average across our study glaciers, 77% of supraglacial pond area was associated with an adjacent ice cliff, and 49% of ice cliffs featured an adjacent supraglacial pond. The spatial density of ice cliffs was not directly related to glacier velocity, but did peak within zones of active ice. Furthermore, we found that ice cliff density was glacier-specific, temporally variable, and was positively correlated with surface lowering and decreasing debris thickness for individual glaciers. Ice cliffs predominantly had a north-facing (commonly north-westerly) aspect, which was independent of glacier flow direction, thereby signifying a strong solar radiation control on cliff evolution. Independent field observations indicated that cliff morphology was related to aspect, local debris thickness, and presence of a supraglacial pond, and highlighted the importance of surface runnel formation, which acts as a preferential pathway for meltwater and debris fluxes. Overall, by coupling remote sensing and in-situ observations it has been possible to capture local and glacier-scale ice cliff dynamics across 14 glaciers, which is necessary if explicit parameterisation of ice cliffs in dynamic glacier models is to be achieved

A Method for Investigating “Instructional Familiarity” and Discerning Authentic Learning

Background: Presently, most medical educators rely exclusively on item difficulty and discrimination indices to investigate an item’s psychometric quality and functioning. We argue “instructional familiarity” effects should also be of primary concern for persons attempting to discern the quality and meaning of a set of test scores. Aim: There were four primary objectives of this study: (1) Revisit Haladyna and Roid’s conceptualization of “instructional sensitivity” within the context of criterion‑referenced assessments, (2) provide an overview of “instructional familiarity” and its importance, (3) reframe the concept for a modern audience concerned with medical school assessments, and (4) conduct an empirical evaluation of a medical school examination in which we attempt to investigate the instructional effects on person and item measures. Subjects and Methods: This study involved a medical school course instructor providing ratings of instructional familiarity (IF) for each mid‑term examination item, and a series of psychometric analyses to investigate the effects of IF on students’ scores and item statistics. The methodology used in this study is based primarily on a mixed‑method, “action research” design for a medical school course focusing on endocrinology. Rasch measurement model; correlation analysis. Results: The methodology presented in this article was evidenced to better discern authentic learning than traditional approaches that ignore valuable contextual information about students’ familiarity with exam items. Conclusions: The authors encourage other medical educators to adopt this straightforward methodology so as to increase the likelihood of making valid inferences about learning.Keywords: Action research, Assessment, Medical education, Psychometrics, Testin